Week 6

Week 6

IN THE LOOP – WEEK 6

Property Industry:

  • April 2021 home loan submissions is slightly down from the previous month
  • Average home loan price growth is sitting at 9.5% vs 2020
  • Bank conversion rations has decreased by 5.1%
  • Q1 2021 showed a 11.39% increase in registrations vs Q1 2020
  • Bondable business increased by 12.55% in Q1 2021 vs Q1 2020
  • The average house price has increased by 7.99% in Q1 2021 vs Q1 2020
  • Home loans submissions continues to maintain the trend seen in Q3 and Q4 of 2020

Local & International Markets:

  • The rand remains weaker. It is currently at R14.32/$ (R14.29/$*)
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the CLP (+0.7%), KRW (+0.5%) and IDR (+0.3%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the COP (-1.0%), RUB (-0.6%) and PEN (-0.5%) were amongst the biggest losers
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this week; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up
  • CPI for March is expected to have increased by 3.2% y/y (vs. Bloomberg consensus of 3.3% y/y) from 2.9% y/y in February
  • Food inflation is again one of the key forecast risks; this will likely be the case throughout the year though we still factor in only a moderate retail food inflation cycle
  • Brent crude oil is down this week, and up by 27.7% year-to-date
  • The gold price is up this week, and down by 6.1% year-to-date
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $66.13/bbl; ($66.57/bbl*)
  • Gold is at $1783/oz ($1778/oz*)
  • SA CDS 211bps*, higher than Brazil 196bps* and lower than Turkey 404bps*
  • Yields: US 10yr at 1.55%*, German bund at -0.262%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.41%*, SA’s R186 at 7.19%*

Covid Update:

  • Covid-19 global update: cases have surpassed 143.56 million, while the death toll has surpassed 3.05 million; recoveries are at 121.93 million
  • The US has 32.53 million cases, accounting for 23% of global cases; the US death toll is 582,456
  • India has 15.61 million cases and 182,570 deaths; Brazil has 14.05 million cases and 378,530 deaths
  • The EU regulator has ruled that the benefits of using the J&J vaccine outweigh the risks of a possible link to rare blood clots. J&J will now resume shipments of the vaccine in the EU
  • More than 925 million vaccine doses have been administered across 155 countries at a rate of 15.9 million doses a day
  • Africa’s Covid-19 cases are at 4.48 million; fatalities are at 118,919
  • Experts have attributed the increase in both cases and deaths on the continent to the emergence of new variants of the virus that are more transmissible. There is concern that these variants can’t be easily tracked as the testing required to identify them isn’t readily available.
  • SA has the 20th highest caseload, at 1.568 million; 853 new cases were reported earlier this week
  • Gauteng has the highest number of confirmed cases, at 420,068 (accounting for 26.8% of the total); 10,536 deaths have been reported
  • The Western Cape has 285,388 (accounting for 18.2% of the total) and 11,572 deaths, while KwaZulu-Natal has 335,850 (accounting for 21.4% of the total) and 10,341 deaths
  • The Eastern Cape has 195,878 cases (accounting for 12,5% of the total) and 11,465 deaths
  • 37 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 23,893 tests were conducted on Tuesday
  • 292,623 healthcare workers have been vaccinated to date

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