Week 7

Week 7

IN THE LOOP – WEEK 7

Property Industry:

  • April home loans submissions continue to outperform expectations
  • Average home loans price in April is 8.5% higher than the 2020 average
  • Bank conversion ratios have improved from March 2021
  • Q1 showed a 11.39% increase in registration vs Q1 2020
  • Bondable business increased by 12.55% in Q1 of 2021 vs the same quarter in 2020
  • The average house price has increased by 7.99% in Q1 vs the same quarter in 2020
  • March 2021 Lightstone Property indices showed 4% house price inflation
  • Average interest rate for March 2021 was 0.42% above prime vs the previous years 1.06% above prime

Local & International Markets:

  • The rand remains weaker. It is currently at R14.39/$ (R14.35/$*)
  • EM currencies were mixed this week; the TRY (+0.8%), CLP (+0.5%) and KRW (+0.3%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the COP (-1.7%), MXN (-0.9%) and ZAR (-0.7%) were amongst the biggest losers
  • Asian equity markets are also mixed this week; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are up, while the Shanghai Composite is down
  • Finance Minister Tito Mboweni commented that SA’s economic growth prospects remain under pressure due to energy supply constraints
  • He noted the urgency of enabling generation projects within the next 12 months to reduce rolling blackouts over the short term and “the only way to enable an economic recovery”
  • Brent crude oil is down marginally this week, and up by 28.2% year-to-date
  • The gold price is down this week and down by 6.7% year-to-date
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $66.39/bbl; ($66.42/bbl*)
  • Gold is at $1770/oz ($1778/oz*)
  • SA CDS 215bps*, higher than Brazil 193bps* and lower than Turkey 423bps*
  • Yields: US 10yr at 1.63%*, German bund at -0.249%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.51%*, SA’s R186 at 7.23%*

Covid Update:

  • Covid-19 global update: cases have surpassed 149.34 million, while the death toll has surpassed 3.14 million; recoveries are at 127.02 million
  • The US has 32.92 million cases, accounting for 23% of global cases; the US death toll is 587,384
  • India has 17.99 million cases and 201,187 deaths; Brazil has 14.44 million cases and 395,324 deaths. The US will send vaccines to India but hasn’t specified a timing for shipments
  • Africa’s Covid-19 cases are at 4.56 million; fatalities are at 121,111. Morocco has 509,972 reported cases, Nigeria 164,914, Ghana 92,464, Kenya 157,492
  • The UN has indicated that the slow vaccine rollout and a lack of funding to bridge the gap between poor and rich countries could set Africa back two to five years
  • While some countries may have access to funds through the $650bn in special drawing rights, a failure to secure enough money could set the continent back
  • The Africa CDC has reported that 15 million vaccine doses have been administered on the continent with a population of about 1.3 billion people
  • SA has the 20th highest caseload, at 1.577 million; 880 new cases were reported earlier this week
  • Covid-19 deaths rose by 51 on Tuesday, to 54,237; 1.502 million people (or 95%) have recovered from the virus
  • Gauteng has the highest number of confirmed cases, at 422,366 (accounting for 26.8% of the total); 10,627 deaths have been reported
  • The Western Cape has 286,257 (accounting for 18.1% of the total) and 11,613 deaths, while KwaZulu-Natal has 336,381 (accounting for 21.3% of the total) and 10,379 deaths
  • The Eastern Cape has 196,000 cases (accounting for 12,4% of the total) and 11,528 deaths
  • SA will resume the use of the J&J vaccine this week

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