IN THE LOOP – WEEK 20
- Early indication in August shows a recovery in bond submissions
- Bank conversions ratios for July continue to outperform 2021 average
- Average home loans value submitted up by 8.31% in July vs 2020
Local and international markets:
- The rand remains stronger at R14.29/$, after closing stronger on Tuesday (R14.32/$*).
- EM currencies were mixed; the ZAR (+0.6%), PHP (+0.6%) and IDR (+0.6%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the CLP (-1.3%), COP (-0.6%) and TRY (-0.5%) were amongst the biggest losers.
- Asian equity markets are mixed this week; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly expects most unemployed to find employment as the US economy recovers.
- Employers have noted that workers are hard to find, even with over 10 million unemployed.
- Labour supply has been affected by the need for child care, fear of infection, and generous unemployment benefits.
- Daly noted that these concerns are unlikely to be “persistent features of the labour market”.
- The US July ADP employment report is due out today and may reflect an increase in payrolls of 683k (692k in June).
- The Brazilian Central Bank is expected to hike the Selic rate by 100 bps, to 4.25%, today.
- Brent crude oil down marginally this morning, and up by 39.9% year-to-date.
- The gold price is up this morning, and down by 4.5% year-to-date.
- Brent crude oil is currently at $72.39/bbl; ($72.41/bbl*).
- Gold is at $1812/oz ($1810/oz*).
- SA CDS 202bps*, higher than Brazil 179bps* and lower than Turkey 383bps*.
- Yields: US 10yr at 1.17%*, German bund at -0.482%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.24%*, SA’s R186 at 7.28%*.
Covid-19 global update:
- Cases have surpassed 200.28 million, while the death toll has surpassed 4.25 million; recoveries are at 180.54 million.
- The US has 36.04 million cases, accounting for 18% of global cases; the US death toll is 630,497.
- India has 31.76 million cases and 425,789 deaths; Brazil has 19.98 million cases and 558,597 deaths.
- The Infectious Diseases Society of America has noted that, due to the added risks of the Delta variant, the “safe herd immunity” now is over 80% vaccinated, even possibly closer to 90%.
- Brazil is easing lockdown restrictions as vaccinations rise and infections fall.
- China’s outbreak of the Delta variant shows no sign of abating.
- The US FDA aims to give final approval to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine by early September.
- The UK is expected to approve vaccinations for 16-17 year olds; this age group will be advised to get either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, matching the guidance for other younger UK residents.
- A UK study has noted that most children contracting the virus recover within a week.
- Globally, over 4.21 billion vaccines have been administered across 180 countries at a rate of 41.9 million doses a day
- Africa’s Covid-19 cases are at 6.87 million; fatalities are at 173,258.
- Morocco has 642,683 reported cases, Nigeria 175,264, Ghana 105,512, Kenya 205,356.
- SA has the 17th highest caseload, at 2.470 million; 8,988 new cases were reported yesterday.
- Active cases are at 147,046; the Western Cape leads the way, with 34,227 active cases, followed by KwaZulu-Natal with 28,550.
- Covid-19 deaths rose by 555 yesterday, to 72,992; 2.25 million people (or 91.1%) have recovered from the virus.
- 97 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 45,312 tests were conducted yesterday.
- The positivity rate is 19.8%.
- 981 million vaccines have been administered to date; 191,721 vaccines were administered yesterday.