IN THE LOOP – WEEK 21
- August bond submissions has recovered since the unrest in July and is 4.65% above 2021 average
- Bank continue to find value in the residential home loans market
- Average home loans value Granted continues to grow with August showing a 4.15% compared to 2020
- Bondable market is up by 49.9% Jan to July compared to the same period in 2020 and 40% above 2019 numbers.
Local & International Markets:
- The rand is stronger this week at R14.84/$ after closing weaker yesterday (R14.92/$*)
- EM currencies were mixed; the PHP (+0.5%), THB (+0.5%) and TRY (+0.2%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the COP (-0.9%), RON (-0.7%) and PLN (-0.7%) were amongst the biggest losers
- Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented this week that the pandemic is “still casting a shadow on economic activity”.
- Powell also noted that while the Fed has powerful tools at its disposal, there are limits to what it can do.
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that there would be “broader economic implications” from viral resurgence, and that the US is probably a “few years away” from hiking rates.
- Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan is expected to comment on the US economic recovery this week.
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has kept its key policy rate unchanged, at 0.25%.
- The bank cited the latest lockdown and uncertainty over the trajectory of the pandemic as reasons for keeping policy steady.
- However, the bank expects monetary policy tightening to begin later this year.
- July CPI likely moderated to 4.7% y/y, from 4.9% y/y in June.
- June retail sales is expected to come in at 9.5% y/y following a 15.8% y/y increase in May.
- Brent crude oil is up this week, and up by 33.7% year-to-date.
- The gold price is up this week, and down by 5.7% year-to-date.
- Brent crude oil is currently at $69.33/bbl; ($69.03/bbl*).
- Gold is at $1788/oz ($1782/oz*).
- SA CDS 203bps*, higher than Brazil 182bps* and lower than Turkey 383bps*.
- Yields: US 10yr at 1.27%*, German bund at -0.4719%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.32%*, SA’s R186 at 7.32%*.
- Covid-19 global update: cases have surpassed 209.39 million, while the death toll has surpassed 4.39 million; recoveries are at 187.68 million.
- The US has 37.89 million cases, accounting for 18% of global cases; the US death toll is 640,093.
- India has 32.28 million cases and 432,552 deaths; Brazil has 20.41 million cases and 570,718 deaths.
- The US is expected to extend mask-wearing regulations for travellers on airplanes, trains and buses, and at airports and train stations to 18 January 2022.
- The Biden Administration is due to donate $47 million to poorer nations to expand access to both Covid-19 and flu vaccines.
- The UK has approved the use of the Moderna vaccine for children as young as 12.
- South Korea expects to have vaccinated 70% of its population by end September.
- Poland will provide Vietnam with over 3.5 million vaccines; Vietnam has received more than 19 million vaccines from various sources, of which nearly 15.3 million doses have been administered.
- Thailand has reported another record daily rise in Covid-related deaths.
- Globally, over 4.78 billion vaccines have been administered across 183 countries at a rate of 37.3 million doses a day.
- Africa’s Covid-19 cases are at 7.39 million; fatalities are at 185,867.
- Morocco has 772,394 reported cases, Nigeria 183,444, Ghana 111,232, Kenya 222,894.
- SA has the 17th highest caseload, at 2.624 million; 10,685 new cases were reported on Tuesday.
- Active cases are at 153,128; the KwaZulu-Natal leads the way, with 47,326 active cases, followed by the Western Cape with 36,255.
- Covid-19 deaths rose by 553 on Tuesday, to 77,993; 2.393 million people (or 91.2%) have recovered from the virus.
- 685 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 52,267 tests were conducted yesterday.
- The positivity rate is 20.4%.
- 753 million vaccines have been administered to date; 181,862 vaccines were administered yesterday.