Week 22

Week 22

IN THE LOOP – WEEK 22

Property Industry:

August bond submissions declined by 10% vs 2020, however continues to be 70% above 2019

Bank conversions ratios was slightly under pressure in August as lending criteria tightens

Average home loans for August up by 5.91% vs 2020 and 9.27% overall for the year

Local and international markets:

  • The rand is weaker this week at R14.53/$ after closing stronger (R14.50/$*).
  • EM currencies were largely up this week; the COP (+1.2%), CLP (+1.0%) and TRY (+1.0%) were amongst the biggest gainers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
  • China’s manufacturing activity contracted in August for the first time since April 2020.
  • The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 pts in August from 50.3 pts in July.
  • Caixin noted that Covid outbreaks and containment measures disrupted production.
  • The decline was largely on the back of lower production, a deterioration in supplier performance, higher raw material prices and an increase in transportation costs.
  • The data further suggests that the impact of the Delta variant outbreak has not just been limited to consumption.
  • The data comes a day after the official manufacturing PMI also reflected a weakening in output in August, albeit remaining just above the 50-benchmark line.
  • The BER’s manufacturing PMI for August is scheduled for release today and is expected to have increased to 48.0 pts from 43.5 pts in July.
  • The August Naamsa vehicle sales is also due out this week and is likely to have increased by 12.6% y/y in August from 1.7% y/y in July.
  • OPEC+ will meet to determine whether to continue its plan to increase supply by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month through December 2021.
  • Brent crude oil is down this week, and up by 39.2% year-to-date. Brent crude oil is currently at $72.10/bbl; ($72.99/bbl*).
  • The gold price is up this week, and down by 4.4% year-to-date. Gold is at $1815/oz ($1814/oz*).
  • SA CDS 186bps*, higher than Brazil 174bps* and lower than Turkey 366bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 1.30%*, German bund at -0.383%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.19%*, SA’s R186 at 7.29%*.

Covid-19 update:

  • Covid-19 global update: cases have surpassed 218.55 million, while the death toll has surpassed 4.53 million; recoveries are at 195.39 million.
  • The US has 40.11 million cases, accounting for 18% of global cases; the US death toll is 657,910.
  • India has 32.81 million cases and 439,054 deaths; Brazil has 20.77 million cases and 580,525 deaths.
  • The European Union has reached its goal of fully vaccinating 70% of its adult population.
  • Australia’s Victoria state has set a 70% vaccine target for reopening and is expected to reach that around 23 September.
  • Ireland is expected to drop most lockdown restrictions in the coming weeks, with almost 90% of the adult population vaccinated.
  • Mauritius is relaxing isolation rules for visitors after it vaccinated more than 60% of its population faster than it had planned.
  • Morocco has started administering vaccines to 12-17-year-olds.
  • Wealthier nations have been urged by the former chairs of the WHO to share their vaccine supplies with poorer nations with increasing urgency.
  • Globally, over 5.31 billion vaccines have been administered across 183 countries at a rate of 40.3 million doses a day.
  • Africa’s Covid-19 cases are at 7.85 million; fatalities are at 196,691.
  • Morocco has 860,948 reported cases, Nigeria 192,431, Ghana 119,436, Kenya 235,863.
  • SA has the 17th highest caseload, at 2.777 million; 7,086 new cases were reported on Tuesday.
  • Active cases are at 150,835; KwaZulu Natal leads the way with 64,969 active cases followed by the Western Cape with 25,824.
  • Covid-19 deaths rose by 431 on Tuesday, to 82,261; 2.544 million people (or 91.6%) have recovered from the virus.
  • 475 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 49,168 tests were conducted on Tuesday.
  • The positivity rate is 14.4%.
  • 568 million vaccines have been administered to date; 261,288 vaccines were administered on Tuesday.

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