IN THE LOOP – WEEK 23
- September bond submissions currently 6% higher than 2020, and 72% above 2019.
- Bank conversions ratios are slightly under pressure.
- Average home loans Submitted value up by 13.89% vs 2020.
Local and international markets:
- The rand is marginally stronger, at R14.29/$, after closing weaker on Tuesday (R14.30/$*).
- EM currencies were largely down; the CLP (-1.0%), TRY (-0.8%) and COP (-0.5%) were amongst the biggest losers.
- Asian equity markets are mixed this week; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.
- Japan’s Q2:21 GDP has come in at 1.9% q/q (saar), from a contraction of 4.2% q/q in Q1:21.
- Stronger private consumption and public expenditure supported growth in Q2:21.
- The expanded and extended state of emergency, however, could see GDP growth slowing in Q3:21 due to weaker household consumption.
- Softening exports, partly due to China’s slowdown, could also weigh on Japan’s growth.
- Nonetheless, Japan’s vaccination drive and a new policy package should boost consumer confidence.
- The EIA will release its short-term energy outlook today.
- Brent crude oil is up this week, and up by 38.6% year-to-date. Brent crude oil is currently at $71.79/bbl; ($71.69/bbl*).
- The gold price is up this week, and down by 5.3% year-to-date. Gold is at $1797/oz ($1795/oz*).
- SA CDS 184bps*, higher than Brazil 176bps* and lower than Turkey 366bps*.
- Yields: US 10yr at 1.37%*, German bund at -0.322%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.28%*, SA’s R186 at 7.36%*.
- Covid-19 global update: cases have surpassed 222.77 million, while the death toll has surpassed 4.60 million; recoveries are at 199.30 million.
- The US has 41.20 million cases, accounting for 18% of global cases; the US death toll is 669,022.
- India has 33.09 million cases and 441,443 deaths; Brazil has 20.91 million cases and 584,208 deaths.
- About 75% of US adults have had at least one vaccine dose.
- Singapore is not ruling out re-imposing pandemic restrictions as infections have increased to a 1-year high.
- Vietnam is considering relaxing restrictions for fully vaccinated people on a trial basis.
- Japan plans to extend the state of emergency in areas including Tokyo to the end of September.
- Venezuela has received its first shipment of Sinovac vaccines purchased through the Covax facility.
- Globally, over 5.56 billion vaccines have been administered across 184 countries at a rate of 37.3 million doses a day.
- Africa’s Covid-19 cases are at 8.02 million; fatalities are at 200,864.
- Morocco has 889,532 reported cases, Nigeria 196,487, Ghana 122,157, Kenya 241,134.
- SA has the 17th highest caseload, at 2.829 million; 5,372 new cases were reported on Tuesday.
- Active cases are at 135,236; KwaZulu-Natal leads the way with 67,786 active cases, followed by the Western Cape with 16,207.
- Covid-19 deaths rose by 282 on Tuesday to 83,899; 2.610 million people (or 92.3%) have recovered from the virus.
- 822 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 43,632 tests were conducted on Tuesday.
- The positivity rate is 12.3%.
- 892 million vaccines have been administered to date in SA; 202,637 vaccines were administered on Tuesday.
- The Sisonke study of SA healthcare workers has found that the J&J vaccine reduces the infection risk by about 50%.
- The study also found that most breakthrough infections were mild.
- This study included several weeks of the third wave of infections spurred by the Delta variant.