Week 24

Week 24

IN THE LOOP – WEEK 24

Property Industry:

Significant improvement seen in bond submissions from July and August
Bank conversions ratios has also seen an increase with competition between the banking partners driving the improvement
Average home loans for September up by 19.64% vs 2020 and 10.14% overall for the year

Local and international markets:

  • The rand is weaker, at R14.35/$, after closing weaker earlier this week (R14.31/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed; the KRW (+0.4%), PLN (+0.3%) and HUF (+0.2%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the ZAR (-1.1%), BRL (-0.5%) and RUB (-0.4%) were amongst the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this week; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.
  • The Chinese economy weakened further in August on stringent public health restrictions.
  • Retail sales growth slowed to 2.5% y/y in August, from 8.3% y/y in July, as outbreaks weighed on consumer spending and travel.
  • Consumers had been cautious to spend even prior to the latest outbreak.
  • In addition, regulatory crackdowns in property and education services have further weighed on consumer sentiment.
  • Industrial production increased by 5.3% y/y in August, from 6.4% y/y in July.
  • Brent crude oil is up this week, and up by 42.9% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is unchanged this week, and down by 5.0% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $74.04/bbl; ($73.60/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $1803/oz ($1803/oz*).
  • SA CDS 184bps*, higher than Brazil 178bps* and lower than Turkey 373bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 1.28%*, German bund at -0.340%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.33%*, SA’s R186 at 7.40%*.

Covid-19 update:

  • Covid-19 global update: cases have surpassed 226.67 million, while the death toll has surpassed 4.66 million; recoveries are at 203.38 million.
  • The US has 42.28 million cases, accounting for 18% of global cases; the US death toll is 682,341.
  • India has 33.31 million cases and 443,528 deaths; Brazil has 21.01 million cases and 587,847 deaths.
  • The UK may roll out its booster-shot program from next week.
  • China has advised against international travel over the coming autumn holidays because of outbreaks overseas.
  • Singapore has noted that the treatment plan for most people with breakthrough infections will be home quarantine.
  • Cuba is expected to begin vaccinating children over the age of 2.
  • Pfizer is looking to have a vaccine ready for children aged six months to five years later this year.
  • Globally, over 5.79 billion vaccines have been administered across 184 countries at a rate of 34.9 million doses a day.
  • Africa’s Covid-19 cases are at 8.15 million; fatalities are at 204,501.
  • Morocco has 908,349 reported cases, Nigeria 200,057, Ghana 123,874, Kenya 244,380.
  • The WHO this week called for more equitable allocation of vaccines, particularly for Africa.
  • The WHO again warned that the pandemic “will not end” until there is better cooperation on supply.
  • SA has the 17th highest caseload, at 2.864 million; 3,699 new cases were reported on Tuesday.
  • Active cases are at 90,540; KwaZulu-Natal leads the way, with 38,577 active cases, followed by the Western Cape with 8,144.
  • Covid-19 deaths rose by 300 on Tuesday, to 85,302; 2.688 million people (or 93.9%) have recovered from the virus.
  • 14 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 44,075 tests were conducted on Tuesday.
  • The SA positivity rate is 8.4%.
  • 188 million vaccines have been administered to date; 248,236 vaccines were administered on Tuesday.

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