MAIN IMAGE: Siphamandla Mkhwanazi, FNB Senior Economist; Johette Smuts, Head of Data Analytics at PayProp
Danie Keet
Despite a slowing momentum, market volumes are still running above pre-pandemic levels. Bar the sentiment shock from the ongoing geopolitical tensions and devastating floods in some parts of the country, internal market strength indicators suggest relatively resilient market activity in the near term.
“It is expected that interest rates will increase by a further 100 bps in 2H22, on the back of a fast-deteriorating inflation outlook. This suggests a less supportive medium-term environment for home buying activity,” says Siphamandla Mkhwanazi, FNB Senior Economist.
“However, employment intentions indices continue to suggest a recovery in headcount in certain industries, after a prolonged period of declining headcount relative to payroll. This, combined with the ongoing shifts in housing needs and banks’ appetite for quality lending, should continue to mitigate the impact of the less supportive environment.”
Annual house price growth lower
The FNB House Price Index growth moved slightly lower in May, averaging 3.7%y/y from 4.0% in April (revised up from 3.8%). Downward pressure on price is coming from the lower and middle-priced segments, while pricier segments continue on a recovery. Data up to 1 March shows that free standing properties are faring better than sectional title properties – consistent with the ongoing changes in housing needs.
Last month, the SARB increased interest rates by 50bps, against an expectation of a 25bps increase. Given this, the upwardly revised inflation forecast, stronger economic growth, as well as the tighter-than-initially-anticipated global monetary conditions, it is now thought that the SARB will be more inclined to frontload interest rate increases. As such, a cumulative 100 bps further increases in 2H22 is expected, although the terminal rate of 5.75% remains unchanged. Despite the rising borrowing costs, market activity and credit availability remain intact. Mortgage credit extension averaged 6.8% year to date, versus average house price growth of 4.0% in the same period (Jan to April).
The market-wide loan to price ratio, derived from Deeds data, has increased to 94.9% in 1Q22 – the highest level in approximately 14 years (since 2Q08). Volumes have also held higher than pre-pandemic levels. Given a gradual shift in buying activity towards higher price points, funding has followed suit.
Rental growth
Johette Smuts, Head of Data Analytics at PayProp, said after last year’s holding pattern, rental growth rebounded in the first quarter of 2022, with year-on-year (YoY) growth of 1.5%, 1.1% and 3% recorded in January, February, and March respectively. The March figure was the strongest performance recorded since the start of the pandemic in March 2020, a positive sign.
“The higher rental growth seen in Q1 2022 is reassuring, but higher interest rates and inflation will put downward pressure on rental growth going forward. Tenant affordability will remain an issue, and a slowdown in the global economy could further impact their finances.
“Nationally, rents increased by 1.8% YoY between Q1 2021 and Q1 2022, bringing the average rent to R7 958 in the first quarter of 2022, up from R7 819 a year earlier.
“The Western Cape remained the most expensive province for tenants after a healthy increase of 2.8%, from R9 142 in Q1 2021 to R9 399 in Q1 2022. Average rent in the Fairest Cape was more than R1 000 higher than the other Cape,” Smuts said.
Mkhwanazi said in turn, there is support to price growth in higher-priced segments, which have been under pressure in the last few years. Generally, these buyers have stronger balance sheets and are less sensitive to interest rates hikes. The impact of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the devastating floods in KwaZulu-Natal on sentiment and the economic recovery poses a downside risk to this view.
“We are encouraged by a modest improvement in employment outcomes and the upside surprise to GDP growth. The economy created a net 370 000 jobs between 4Q21 and 1Q22, which saw the unemployment rate receding marginally to 34.5% from 35.3% in the previous quarter. The total wage bill, on the other hand, was up by 5.5% y/y in 1Q22. These gains were offset by higher inflation, which averaged 5.8% y/y in the same period, suggesting a decline in real wages during the period.”
Smuts concluded by saying the post-pandemic economic recovery is expected to be slow both nationally and globally, and the rental market will most likely stay under pressure for the foreseeable future.
