MAIN IMAGE: John Loos – property economist at FNB Commercial Property Finance
Senior writer
Undisputedly, John Loos, property economist at FNB Commercial Property Finance, has been a catalyst in SA’s residential property economy landscape for decades, analysing and breaking down complex property disruptor statistics into simpler, more understandable language.
When you engage with John Loos, you are exposed to a wealth of experience and wisdom acquired through studying the forces that move money in the property arena. His level of property expertise is highly comprehensive: from the macro level, which looks at fiscal policy, economic growth, production, and consumption, to the micro level, which requires a deep understanding of the statistics from the perspective of consumers.
After acquiring his Master’s in Economics, Loos’s macro experience came from his role as an economist in the National Treasury under the then Finance Minister Trevor Manuel. This was followed by his tenure as a Macroeconomist for Globalinsight (now S&P Global). This was followed by a five-year stint at the Absa Group, where he coordinated the Group’s macroeconomic forecasting process, resulting in his being named 2004 Reuters Economist of the Year.
Two years later, Loos became intrigued by what he refers to as “possibly the greatest consumer and property boom in South African history”, which fed into his passion for all things related to Consumer and Property Cycle Analysis. It drove him to explore the micro side of the residential property market, joining FNB, where he was tasked with developing the now-renowned FNB Property Barometer, which provides some of the leading housing market analysis in SA.
In 2018, Loos moved over to FNB’s Commercial Property Finance Unit, where he is tasked with developing its commercial property analysis. “I still keep an eye on the residential market from the development/new building angle, though,” he says.
Why specifically ‘property’ analysis?
It was an acquired taste developed during my Absa days, where I periodically assisted with the then-authoritative Absa Housing Review. And I really enjoyed it. When the housing market bubble during 2003-2007 emerged, along with it, a crazy frenzy of property over-investment and all the “irrational” investment behaviour and wild speculative activity captured my attention. It was a boom period which sadly ended badly in 2008/9, but from an analyst’s point of view, it was fascinating.
Have you ever faced a crossroads in your career?
Yes, during my macroeconomist days at Absa. Having such a broad focus had become frustrating where one knows only a little about everything. I wanted to zoom in on detail, and the shift to housing market analysis in 2006 was just what the doctor ordered. However, I can’t say I strongly considered the pros and cons of moving to housing market analysis. It was, perhaps, a bit risky moving into a Home Mortgage Lending division at the time when bubble-era loans on the books were going bad and losses were piling up, but that was the best time to gain amazing insights and a time when the housing market analysis was sought after.
Why do you think you have become so well-known for being the ‘go-to property analyst’ in SA?
I think it was because there really was a shortage of such analysis at the time. The only housing market analysis was the Absa Housing Review. When we developed far more detailed and frequent analysis at FNB, it was bound to be popular.
Working within FNB Home Loans, as opposed to being in a centralised economics department, also gave me far better insights into the home loans market and, by default, the residential property market. I think more economists should try to add deeper value by exploring new, unique areas of analysis.
In macroeconomics, there is much duplication; many economists are doing largely the same thing. When you’re almost alone in a new “space,” you’re bound to be more valued because what you are doing is unique. These days, there is significantly more housing market information available from various sources, which is why I currently focus more on commercial property markets, where there are a number of “authoritative” analysts.
How do economists play a leadership role in property stakeholder organisations?
I think all economists play a different leadership role compared to management positions. We are specialists and rarely in positions of huge authority. I prefer to call us “thought leaders.” You have no authority over key decision-makers in a big corporation, but you are still influential and an authority to the extent that hopefully people “sit up and listen.” If they do, you can then influence strategy and decision-making.
How has your management style changed over the years?
I came to understand that while there are many economists who are absolutely brilliant, few who access their knowledge have an understanding of their value. I realised early in my career that to be taken seriously requires self-marketing beyond simply accumulating information and knowledge. This was likely the most significant turning point in my career.
